Fossil fuel reserves

​The future economic development of the United States cannot be based on dwindling reserves of fossil fuels. At the present rate of consumption (2016) of 96 million barrels per day (mb/d) increasing to 104 mb/d by 2040, even by optimistic measures all the fossil fuel endowment of the planet will be exhausted in less than two-hundred years, some of it much sooner as illustrated below. Furthermore, North America’s reliance on fossil fuels harms both environmental and human health, weakens our international economic competitiveness and keeps the US critically dependent on foreign oil. ​ 

TABLE I.  2014 World’s fossil fuels (BP statistical review)

Year 2014	Production (P)	Reserves (R)	Consumption	R/P	Exp. **
Oil*	87x10^6 bbl/day	1.69x10^12 bbl	92x10^6 bbl/day	53.3 yr	40 yr
Coal	5.43x10^9 tonne/yr	8.9x10^11 tonne	5.3x10^9 tonne/yr	163 yr	97 yr
Natural Gas	3.4x10^12 m^3/yr	185.6x10^12 m^3	3.4x10^12 m^3/yr	54.6 yr	44 yr

​R/P: Static reserve. Assumes constant consumption
*Conventional crude only. Does not include tar sands or shale oil reserves.
**  Exponential reserve, which assumes constant consumption rate µ is given by (1/µ) ln(1+µR/P), with µ~0.8% – 1%

anthropogenic climate change

Coal emits the most carbon dioxide out of all of the fossil fuels.

As 2016 was the warmest year since 1880 it is likely that the future effects of global warming will be highlighted by drastic changes in human and environmental health.  Declining human health will serve as a major proxy indicator of the harmful effects of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. 

Rising temperatures and extreme heat will cause continental ice sheets in both the Arctic and Antarctic regions to melt, leading to rising sea levels, changes in oceanic salinity and currents, and reductions in biodiversity and sea-life populations.  From New York to Florida to California low lying lands will be flooded permanently, droughts will become more prevalent and prolonged in regions already experiencing water shortages, causing an increase in heat-related illnesses and major losses in the global agricultural industries.

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Changes in climate will become more common and more extreme, leading to a higher frequency of natural disasters (unseasonable Hurricane Sandy, the relentless drought and forest fires in the North American west being clear examples), that will permanently displace large populations with enormous costs for disaster relief.  In a global emergency, no singular country, region, or citizen will be spared the consequences of drastic, irreversible climate change. The transition from a carbon-based to the renewable resource-based economy is therefore a matter of global survival.​ ​​

Climate change will put low -lying areas at risk of flooding.

​Carbon dioxide CONCENTRATions since 1700

Carbon dioxide and methane are the two main gases released into the atmosphere with the burning of fossil fuels and they are directly correlated to Global Warming. Since 1880, the global temperature has risen 0.9 degrees celsius; and in the last 45 years, 0.17 degrees celsius per decade. Warmer temperatures have in turn resulted in rising sea levels, roughly 3.4 mm per year since 1880. Graph Courtesy of Scripps institution of Oceanograhy.

incentives to private capital

A unique outcome of the implementation of NARNEA will be a transformation of traditional jobs. Through the conversion process, jobs will not be lost.  Rather, many new ones will be created as workers are brought in to aid in the transition of plants, train employees operate the new facilities, and conduct maintenance. In 2016 alone, 51,000 jobs were created in the solar industry.  Implementing NARNEA will expand the job market drastically through the creation of entirely new employment opportunities in renewable energy sectors.  We have estimated that during the 10-15-year period of implementing NARNEA, over 20 million jobs will be created. While many of these jobs will be held on a temporary basis, permanent jobs will open in the manufacturing and development of renewable technologies. NARNEA will decrease the North American unemployment rate and boost the economy by creating domestic jobs that cannot be outsourced. Moreover, NARNEA will strengthen the North American economies by making them less dependent on global energy price fluctuations prevalent in fossil fuels. 

Once implemented, NARNEA will help strengthen the North American economies and job markets.